Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.
