A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
